We consider the following problem: estimate the size of a population marked with serial numbers after only a sample of the serial numbers has been observed. Its simplicity in formulation and the inviting possibilities of applicationmake this estimation well suited for an undergraduate level probability course. Our contribution consists in a Bayesian treatment of the problem. For an improper uniform prior distribution, we show that the posterior mean and variance have nice closed form expressions and we demonstrate how tocompute highest posterior density intervals. Maple and R code is provided on the authors’ web-page to allow students to verify the theoretical results and experiment with data.
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